Intervention. Now don't let that big word scare you. The talking heads on TV have been discussing it all week because the major banks of the world are going to "prop up" the Euro. What the heck is the "euro"? This is a currency just like the British Pound, the French Franc and the German Duetschmark, but it supercedes those currencies and is supposed to ultimately replace them as the money of all the European countries. It is another layer on top of the currency of each country. It was introduced in January 1999 and has been sinking ever since. It was supposed to stabilize the European currencies, but all the underlying currencies have been going down in relation to the US Dollar. When the tide goes out the boat goes down. The tide is the various currencies and the boat is the Euro. Everything must be converted to Euros. Oil is world-priced in U.S. dollars so it takes many more Euros now than it did early this year. This principle applies to everything that is bought abroad by European countries. Why do we care? Politics. Let's make this simple. Take your neighborhood and use the housing market as an example. Ever had a "soft" market for home values in your area? Of course you have. Everyone has. So the local real estate boards decide the way to keep prices from going down is to buy houses as they come on the market at the current prices even though the real values continue to slip lower. What happens? Immediately prices strengthen, but slowly they start to weaken again and finally the real estate boards run out of money and suddenly when the artificial buying ceases the market collapses to a lower price than where they started their "intervention". Brilliant strategy! As I have said in my book an economist is the last person you want to consult about what is going to happen in the real market. Most of them don't know the price of a loaf of bread and quart of milk. They will quote you econometric formulas until they are blue in the face and no two of them will agree on anything. Until the underlying economies of the European countries strengthen with good sound economic principles, primarily laissez-faire, you will not see a long-term positive effect on the Euro. If you aren't confused you by now, don't worry about it because none of us peons can get these geniuses to use good common sense. |
